Unpacking the Cash Shop Lottery

darkwarrior • 3 October 2019 at 10:24 PM

Ah, the elusive Cash Shop Lottery.

I buy fifty tickets every two weeks (more or less). And after many years, I still haven't won, not even once. Many of you have had this feeling- disappointment, mostly.

And you wonder. What exactly are the odds of winning the lottery? Is it worth investing in?

I'll be here to answer that very same question.

(This next part is all math. If you get bored, skip to the part that reads, "ARTICLE CONTINUES HERE". Also, if you find an error in my calculations or reasoning, let me know.)

At 50 tickets, the price is 2000 EC each, and 100 000 EC in total.
The price of a cash shop creature is 500 CC or 5 000 000 EC.
That means that the price of one cash shop creature is equivalent to the price of 50 lotteries if the full price is paid (5 000 000/100 000 = 50), or 250 tickets.
Out of 50 lotteries, a player would have to win at least one to equal the price of the standard cash shop creature.

Basically, this means that you would need to win more one lottery every 25 months (~2 years) if you want to get your money's worth.

What are my chances of winning?

Keep in mind that people buy different quantities of tickets every time. Some buy one, others 16, and some 50. So to keep things simple and rounded out, let's assume every player who plays the lottery buys 25 tickets.

You would need a 1 in 50 chance to win the lottery every time, based on the calculations above. That would be a 50/2500 ticket ratio.

From 2500 tickets, 100 people need to play 25 tickets each (250/100=25).
I'm willing to wager that more than 100 people play the lottery every time.
So is your money worth it? Have you been spending it wisely? Nah.



If you've skipped down to the main article, here's the answer:
Nope. Nada. N-O.

You'd be spending your EC much more wisely if you save up for a regular priced 500 CC creature at the Cash Shop. Earn your 5 million EC, then trade it for CC.

Don't waste your money on this one.

beta • 5 October 2019 at 7:37 PM

@Darkwarrior gotta be straight with ya, that makes sense lol. I only buy like 1-10 tickets myself 😋

darkwarrior • 21 October 2019 at 11:06 AM

@stevepat2002
yeah, I've started to only buy 1 or 2 per lottery. 2000 EC isn't enough for me to care about, so I don't regret throwing it away.

Thanks for reading.

raccoon • 21 October 2019 at 2:12 PM

@darkwarrior

'after many years' :'D dang lottery hasnt even been around for years!

you bring up some good points though, but at the same time... do people really enter EVERY lottery? can people resist the urge to spend and instead save up for cc vouchers? by the time you have the funds to buy a creature outright from saving, the creature you want might not even be available anymore!

plus it's just fun ;P totally your choice to enter or not though.

minnie298a • 22 October 2019 at 10:35 AM

@darkwarrior @raccoon

I've purchased the max amount of tickets for every lottery. It doen't take me long on double feed day to get the ec to buy the tickets for the following 2 lotteries. Personally, there have been very few CC creatures I *must* have, so saving for the CC it's self isn't something I want to do. I do keep enough ec in my bank to buy the CC through useer shops if there is a creature that grabs my fancy.

In saying that I have also won twice. In July 2018 (Zinhir) and October 2018 (Sabbomet). So by the math, I think I'm ahead.

darkwarrior • 23 October 2019 at 1:27 PM

@raccoon
@minnie298a

You guys bring up some interesting points.

The calculations were based on the assumption that 100 people would enter each time, and that they would each submit 25 tickets.

I guess it's not factual to assume statistics though, so I need more data to improve the info (AKA more people to fill out the survey at the top)