Halloween - Double or Nothing

crystalshard • 3 October 2020 at 3:44 PM

Double or Nothing, the one Halloween game where I've had the opportunity to earn the most seeds, yet have also spent the most on.

I'm mainly curious on how many consecutive tosses people have been able to reach up until and whether maybe there is an extra prize after passing the 10th toss? (According to probability, there's a ~0.1% chance of getting all 10 tosses; I have faith that at least one person must have beaten the odds).

My personal record was 8, where I was offered ~1.6k seeds (which I rejected in favor of flipping the coin again and losing 😋 )

beta • 3 October 2020 at 3:45 PM

@crystalshard do you know the probability of getting a heads? I’d assume it’s 50% but I’m not sure

crystalshard • 3 October 2020 at 3:49 PM

@stevepat2002 I assumed it's 50% in that calculation. But I haven't done a survey with a large sample size (maybe I'll make that as a sidegoal for this halloween event lol).

beta • 3 October 2020 at 4:58 PM

@crystalshard with 50% chance of getting heads, the calculation is roughly Probability of heads occuring 10 times=0.0009765625

crystalshard • 3 October 2020 at 5:11 PM

@stevepat2002 Yup, I rounded up from 0.00097 to 0.001 * 100% = 0.1%

theposiden649 • 5 October 2020 at 10:27 AM

@crystalshard I got ten and I was happy but I have a trick up my sleve and it involves a bit of thinking u wanna know open a private chat I ain't sharing with anyone else.

crystalshard • 5 October 2020 at 4:51 PM

@theposiden649 Lol why does this sound so secretive 😊 I'm not too interested in how it was done (sounds like a trade secret that you would want to keep to yourself); mainly wanting to know what the final prize was (If it were just seeds or if there was something else as well)

ghostfeather • 5 October 2020 at 4:55 PM

@crystalshard lol i know a secret! Always try to start when it shows the pumpkin picture on the seed. I do that but I dont continue. I dont want to end up losing, thats why.

izziedragon • 5 October 2020 at 10:43 PM

@ghostfeather omg is that really a thing?
@crystalshard my record was 5 wins! I don't remember if I tried again though

ghostfeather • 5 October 2020 at 10:52 PM

@izziedragon Yes! I usually win when i do that

crystalshard • 12 October 2020 at 10:24 PM

Ok, after a fair amount of time of throwing seeds, I have the statistics of my hundred tosses. I've organized it by the number of wins and losses for each round (Note that I eventually decided to just cash in when reaching round 5). Note that I didn't try to specifically click when seeing the pumpkin or not.
Round___1____2____3____4____5____6
Loss_____54__20___15___4____4____1
Win_____46__26___11___7____1____0

@stevepat2002 It seems reasonable to guess an around 50% chance? (With perhaps a bit of bias towards losing)

Edit: Simply having spaces causes them to become concatenated, so I separated parts using underscores

Orderedchaos • 12 October 2020 at 11:01 PM

@crystalshard
It is just a straight 50/50 chance to get heads or tails, nothing fancy.

And there is no "trick" to winning. Its all just chance.

crystalshard • 13 October 2020 at 4:32 PM

Mystery solved. I can now stop recording my seed tosses 😊

Thank you for the clarification @Orderedchaos

frankenstein • 13 October 2020 at 7:22 PM

Aw, I thought the trick was clicking when it was visible. I guess it's a good thing I don't play that one much, lol.